A post on BitcoinTalk

On December 13th, 2013 a now infamous post was first published on BitcoinTalk, the go-to forum for early Bitcoin enthusiasts. The poster intentionally misspelled the word “Hold” as “Hodl” and proceeded to go on a rant about why he has decided to simply buy and hold Bitcoin as opposed to day trading. The post is full of all caps musings that range from comments about his girlfriend’s whereabouts to his reasoning on why trying to time the market is a loser’s bet. The original post can be found here.

This one innocuous post spawned a sub-culture within the Bitcoin world. It led to memes, merchandise, and a new philosophy around the best strategies for investing in Bitcoin.

Hodl Waves

The term “Hodl” even led to a new on-chain metric. Every movement of every bitcoin, from the moment it was mined to all subsequent transactions, are recorded on the Blockchain. Because of Bitcoin’s public nature, it is fairly easy to determine the “age” of every transaction on the network. In other words, by looking at every transaction, we can answer the question; how long ago was Bitcoin X moved? By dividing all Bitcoin UTXOs into categories of when they were last moved, we can effectively create “Hodl Waves”. These Hodl Waves provide insights into future adoption cycles and price movements. They help illuminate price floors and help traders and investors determine good support levels. They also paint a picture of what types of “Hodlers” are entering the Bitcoin ecosystem in each cycle. This blog series will dive deeper into each type of hodler, when they entered the market, and their motivations. It will also look forward to what types of hodlers might enter the market in the future.